By Stephen Ippolito | July 16th, 2020
This morning a very concerning story broke about Marvel Studios and it’s parent company Disney. Doug Creutz, whose an analyst for the financial services company Cowen, downgraded their stock ($101 to $97) after cutting their future revenue estimate for their parks and film divisions. Creutz says that because he doesn’t expect most domestic theaters to open until mid-2021, the company will hold off releasing any of their big films until then. This would include Black Widow (November) and The Eternals (February).
At the moment, Marvel Studios has it’s Phase 4 slate scheduled all the way through 2022. If their first two films were to be pushed back, it’s likely the rest of Phase 4 would go with it. If this happens, it would be the second time that Marvel would have to adjust nearly all their release dates because of the Conornavirus. What’s not known is how this will affect their upcoming Disney+ shows that are supposed to take place in the MCU’s Phase 4.
With hundreds of millions of dollars on the line for each film, Disney clearly doesn’t think it can recoup or profit without domestic theaters being fully open. They also feel that releasing it as a paid premium on VOD or Disney+ would not be worth it.
It’s should be noted that this is only one analyst’s opinion, and they are not always right. However, it is their job to be dialed in and know these things for their clients who invest millions, if not billions of dollars into these companies.
This might explain why Marvel Studios held off on doing a panel for next week’s Comic-Con at Home. They simply don’t know when any of their films will be released.
Hopefully, this analyst is wrong, and the MCU’s Phase 4 films will kick off in November. I can’t imagine having to wait until mid-2021. By that point, it will have been almost two years since the last film in the MCU came out (Spider-Man: Far From Home). One thing I keep hearing is imagine if this happened for Avengers: Endgame last year?